XTRA: Playoff Forecast 4.0

By Roger Brown
- Tweet
- Pin It
Updated: October 19, 2016

PLAYOFF FORECAST 4.0

New Hampshire Football Report’s NHIAA playoff projections:

DIVISION I
Playoff field: Exeter (East champion); Nashua North (West champion), Bedford (North champion), Merrimack (South champion), Dover (wildcard), Bishop Guertin (wildcard), Goffstown (wildcard) and Salem (wildcard).

Quarterfinal matchups:
East/West: Bishop Guertin at Exeter, and Dover at Nashua North.
North/South: Salem at Bedford, and Goffstown at Merrimack.

Comment: The four playoff teams have been determined in the North/South bracket. All that remains to be seen is where the teams are seeded. Saturday’s Salem/Goffstown game will likely determine the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds. Salem will play Bedford next week, when Goffstown will face Merrimack. We may have those same matchups in the first round of the playoffs as well.

Exeter can earn the No. 1 overall seed in the East/West with a victory over Bishop Guertin on Friday. BG has qualified for the playoffs, but will probably have to beat Nashua North next week to win Division I West. Otherwise, North will likely be the West champion. Nashua South will remain in the playoff hunt if it wins at Portsmouth on Friday. Portsmouth needs a win plus a loss by either Dover or Nashua North to stay alive.

If Dover and Nashua North each finish 7-2 and BG ends up 6-3, Dover will open the playoffs at North even though the Green Wave beat the Titans during the regular season. North would be the West champion and No. 2 seed in that scenario, while Dover would be the No. 3 seed.

DIVISION II
Playoff field: John Stark (North champion), Windham (South champion), Plymouth (wildcard), Hanover (wildcard), Bow (wildcard), St. Thomas (wildcard), Milford (wildcard) and Hollis/Brookline (wildcard).

Quarterfinal matchups
Hollis/Brookline at John Stark, Milford at Windham, Bow at Plymouth and St. Thomas at Hanover.

Comment: Four teams have qualified in Division II, and five others — Bow (6-1), ConVal (6-1), St. Thomas (5-2), Milford (5-2) and Hollis/Brookline (5-2) — still have a reasonable chance to fill the four other playoff spots. Based on how tough their remaining regular-season schedule is, it’s possible that either Bow or ConVal could finish 6-3 and outside the top eight. Bow still has to play John Stark and Lebanon, and ConVal has St. Thomas and Windham.

DIVISION III
Playoff field: Monadnock (North champion), Bishop Brady (South champion), I-L/M (North wildcard), Stevens (North wildcard), Newport (North wildcard), Winnisquam (South wildcard), Somersworth (South wildcard) and Campbell (South wildcard).

Quarterfinal matchups
Somersworth at Monadnock, Newport at Bishop Brady, Campbell at I-L/M and Winnisquam at Stevens.

Comment: There is very little to be determined here outside of seeding. Even the teams that aren’t in the top four in either conference but are still mathematically alive are longshots to extend their seasons. The biggest game on this weekend’s schedule is Winnisquam at Campbell. That outcome looks like it will determine the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the South conference. Even that may not matter much, however, since the No. 2 team from the South will likely be on the road (see below).

Note: The football point-rating system and not a team’s seed will determine home-field advantage in the postseason for Division III teams. Thus, a No. 3 seed could be the home team against a No. 2 seed in the quarterfinals.

In addition, for your convenience, the procedure for breaking ties is listed below:

Tie Breaking Procedure

In the event of a tie for a tournament position, the Football Committee shall resolve the tie by using the following criteria:

A. If two schools are tied for a tournament position:
a. The winner of Head-to-Head competition will be selected.
b. The Football Point Rating System will be applied.
c. Football Point Rating against NHIAA divisional opponents selected for the tournament including all teams involved in a tie for the last position. Once the tournament teams have been selected, the teams that were tied for the last position are no longer used in breaking ties as they are not considered tournament teams.
d. Quality of wins against tournament teams in division including all teams involved in a tie for last position (ranking) **
e. Football Point Rating against divisional opponents on the road ***
f. Football Point Rating against divisional opponents at home.
g. Wins on the road regardless of division or state.
h. Wins at home regardless of division or state.
i. If teams are still tied, the team that defeated the highest NHIAA seeded team in their division (this includes both tournament and non-tournament teams) will be selected.

B. If three (3) or more schools are tied for a tournament position:
a. The winner in head-to-head competition will be used if all schools involved in the tie have competed against each other.
b. The Football Point Rating System will be applied.
c. Football Point Rating against NHIAA divisional opponents selected for the tournament including all teams involved in a tie for the last position. Once the tournament teams have been selected, the teams that were tied for the last position are no longer used in breaking ties as they are not considered tournament teams.
d. Quality of wins against tournament teams in division including all teams involved in a tie for last position (ranking) **
e. Football Point Rating against divisional opponents on the road ***
f. Football Point Rating against divisional opponents at home.
g. Wins on the road regardless of division or state.
h. Wins at home regardless of division or state.
i. If teams are still tied, the team that defeated the highest NHIAA seeded team in their division (this includes both tournament and non-tournament teams) will be selected.

** Ranking is defined as the total number of wins by beaten opponents in division that qualify for the tournament against other tournament teams divided by the total number of games against tournament opponents. Example: If you played eight tournament teams and you beat three of them, you would add the wins against tournament teams of those three beaten opponents. You would then divide that total by the number of tournament opponents played by all eight of the tournament teams you have played.

*** On the road – means games scheduled as “away” games.

*****

NHFR’s playoff forecast will be updated each week throughout the remainder of the season.